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Trujillo vs Azuaga — Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 2019

Trujillo
Trujillo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Azuaga
Azuaga
11/8/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 14Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 4Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Trujillo35%
×Draw27%
Azuaga38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trujillo
1.19
Azuaga
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 108 away

creates per match

Trujillo
1.21
Azuaga
1.34

allows per match

Trujillo
1.16
Azuaga
1.18

finishing

Trujillo+0.00on par
Azuaga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trujillo ↓

Azuaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Trujillo or draw
62%
Trujillo or Azuaga
73%
Draw or Azuaga
65%

Winning margin

Trujillo wins by 2+
15%
Azuaga wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Trujillo 1+ goals
70%
Trujillo 2+ goals
33%
Trujillo 3+ goals
12%
Azuaga 1+ goals
71%
Azuaga 2+ goals
36%
Azuaga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Trujillo (draw refunded)
48%
Azuaga (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trujillo at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.16 · 94 matches

Azuaga away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trujillo attack 1.21 + Azuaga defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Azuaga attack 1.34 + Trujillo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Trujillo scores more
35%
level
27%
Azuaga scores more
38%

Azuaga at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Azuaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trujillo vs Azuaga

Trujillo and Azuaga drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on November 8, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Julián García de Guadiana in Trujillo.