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Tropezón vs Vimenor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Tropezón
Tropezón
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vimenor
Vimenor
11/3/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Campo Municipal Santa Ana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Tropezón49%
×Draw26%
Vimenor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tropezón
1.54
Vimenor
1.02

Tropezón creates 51% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 109 away

creates per match

Tropezón
1.73
Vimenor
1.27

allows per match

Tropezón
0.78
Vimenor
1.35

finishing

Tropezón+0.00on par
Vimenor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tropezón ↓

Vimenor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tropezón or draw
75%
Tropezón or Vimenor
74%
Draw or Vimenor
51%

Winning margin

Tropezón wins by 2+
25%
Vimenor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tropezón 1+ goals
79%
Tropezón 2+ goals
45%
Tropezón 3+ goals
20%
Vimenor 1+ goals
64%
Vimenor 2+ goals
27%
Vimenor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tropezón (draw refunded)
66%
Vimenor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tropezón at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.78 · 95 matches

Vimenor away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.35 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tropezón attack 1.73 + Vimenor defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.54

Vimenor attack 1.27 + Tropezón defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tropezón scores more
49%
level
26%
Vimenor scores more
25%

Tropezón at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tropezón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Tropezón 2–2 Vimenor

Tropezón and Vimenor drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Santa Ana in Torrelavega.