Tromso 1–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Haugesund

L. Nilsen 89'

A. Ndour 48' (pen)

6/19/2022

Eliteserien · Round 10Alfheim Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Tromso59%

×Draw21%

Haugesund20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.13

Tromso

2.07

Haugesund

1.13

Tromso creates 83% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

1.78

creates per match

1.07

1.19

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Tromso

1.78

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Tromso

1.19

Haugesund

2.36

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso-0.16scores less

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

80%

Tromso or Haugesund

79%

Draw or Haugesund

41%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

36%

Haugesund wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

87%

Tromso 2+ goals

61%

Tromso 3+ goals

34%

Haugesund 1+ goals

68%

Haugesund 2+ goals

31%

Haugesund 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

74%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.78 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.07

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Tromso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tromso scores more

59%

level

21%

Haugesund scores more

20%

Tromso at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Mikkelsen

Tromso · F

7.6

Match Events

19'

W. Kamanzi← N. Vesterlund

22'

Alioune Ndour

48'

A. NdourPenalty

58'

Ruben Jenssen

70'

E. Moses← J. Tuominen

70'

E. Kitolano← C. Øyvann

76'

J. Holtan← A. Ndour

82'

A. Jenssen← S. Opsahl

85'

U. Fredriksen← M. Sande

89'

L. Nilsen↳ A. Jenssen

90+1'

M. Samuelsen← J. Holtan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoHaugesund

Overview

51%Possession49%

13Total Shots2

12Corners2

9Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots2

3On Target1

7Off Target0

3Blocked1

6Inside Box2

7Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

448Total Passes454

357Accurate Passes364

80%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides2