Tromso 1–2 Haugesund: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Tromso

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Haugesund

M. Andersen 61'

A. Stølås 75'

I. Koné 5'

8/5/2018

Eliteserien · Round 17Alfheim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Tromso59%

×Draw21%

Haugesund20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TromsoExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.13

Tromso

2.07

Haugesund

1.13

Tromso creates 83% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 30 away

1.78

creates per match

1.07

1.19

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Tromso

1.78

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Tromso

1.19

Haugesund

2.36

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Tromso-0.16scores less

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tromso ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Tromso or draw

80%

Tromso or Haugesund

79%

Draw or Haugesund

41%

Winning margin

Tromso wins by 2+

36%

Haugesund wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tromso 1+ goals

87%

Tromso 2+ goals

61%

Tromso 3+ goals

34%

Haugesund 1+ goals

68%

Haugesund 2+ goals

31%

Haugesund 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Tromso (draw refunded)

74%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tromso at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tromso attack 1.78 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.07

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Tromso defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Tromso scores more

59%

level

21%

Haugesund scores more

20%

Tromso at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tromso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Morten Pedersen

Tromso · M

8.1

Match Events

5'

I. Koné↳ C. Grindheim

36'

Ibrahima Kone

61'

M. Andersen↳ D. Berntsen

72'

K. Velde← I. Koné

74'

Morten Gamst Pedersen

75'

Simen Wangberg

75'

A. Stølås

86'

A. Ikedi← I. Wadji

88'

M. Bakenga← L. Nilsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TromsoHaugesund

Overview

70%Possession30%

23Total Shots5

10Corners1

10Fouls16

Shots

23Total Shots5

6On Target3

11Off Target2

6Blocked0

16Inside Box2

7Outside Box3

Passing

70%Possession30%

611Total Passes261

527Accurate Passes183

86%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Eliteserien: Tromso 1–2 Haugesund

Haugesund beat Tromso 2-1 in Eliteserien on August 5, 2018.

Goals: I. Koné (5'), M. Andersen (61'), A. Stølås (75').

Tromso controlled possession (70%) and registered 23 shots to 5.

The match was played at Alfheim in Tromso.

Tromso vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Tromso 1–2 Haugesund