Trollhättan vs Trelleborg: Preview & Prediction

Trollhättan

Preview

14:00

Trelleborg

8/22/2026

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 18Edsborgs IP

52%

Trelleborg

model favours

25%23%52%

Both teams score in 88% of Trollhättan’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

59%

over 2.5 goals

59%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trollhättan25%

×Draw23%

Trelleborg52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrollhättanExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.84

Trollhättan

1.22

Trelleborg

1.84

Trelleborg creates 51% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 7 away

1.86

creates per match

2.29

1.39

allows per match

0.57

creates per match

Trollhättan

1.86

Trelleborg

2.29

allows per match

Trollhättan

1.39

Trelleborg

0.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trollhättan+0.00on par

Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trollhättan ↓

Trelleborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Trollhättan or draw

48%

Trollhättan or Trelleborg

77%

Draw or Trelleborg

75%

Winning margin

Trollhättan wins by 2+

10%

Trelleborg wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Trollhättan 1+ goals

70%

Trollhättan 2+ goals

34%

Trollhättan 3+ goals

12%

Trelleborg 1+ goals

84%

Trelleborg 2+ goals

55%

Trelleborg 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Trollhättan (draw refunded)

33%

Trelleborg (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trollhättan at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.39 · 113 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trollhättan attack 1.86 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.22

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Trollhättan defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Trollhättan scores more

25%

level

23%

Trelleborg scores more

52%

Trelleborg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches
Trollhättan score first in only 29% of matches
48% of Trollhättan’s goals come after the 75th minute
Trollhättan win just 25% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
Trollhättan sit 15, Trelleborg 1 in the table