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Trollhättan vs Eskilsminne — Ettan - Södra 2019

Trollhättan
Trollhättan
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
11/11/2023Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 30Edsborgs IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Trollhättan48%
×Draw23%
Eskilsminne28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trollhättan
1.76
Eskilsminne
1.29

Trollhättan creates 36% more chances

Season form · 114 home / 82 away

creates per match

Trollhättan
1.87
Eskilsminne
1.20

allows per match

Trollhättan
1.38
Eskilsminne
1.65

finishing

Trollhättan+0.00on par
Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trollhättan ↓

Eskilsminne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Trollhättan or draw
72%
Trollhättan or Eskilsminne
77%
Draw or Eskilsminne
52%

Winning margin

Trollhättan wins by 2+
26%
Eskilsminne wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trollhättan 1+ goals
83%
Trollhättan 2+ goals
52%
Trollhättan 3+ goals
26%
Eskilsminne 1+ goals
72%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
37%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trollhättan (draw refunded)
63%
Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trollhättan at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.38 · 114 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.65 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trollhättan attack 1.87 + Eskilsminne defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.76

Eskilsminne attack 1.20 + Trollhättan defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Trollhättan scores more
48%
level
23%
Eskilsminne scores more
28%

Trollhättan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Trollhättan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trollhättan vs Eskilsminne

Eskilsminne beat Trollhättan 2-1 in Ettan - Södra on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Edsborgs IP in Trollhättan.