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Trival Valderas vs Leganés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Trival Valderas
Trival Valderas
CANC
00:00
Leganés II
Leganés II
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio La Canaleja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Trival Valderas35%
×Draw25%
Leganés II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trival Valderas
1.33
Leganés II
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 79 away

creates per match

Trival Valderas
1.33
Leganés II
1.89

allows per match

Trival Valderas
0.99
Leganés II
1.32

finishing

Trival Valderas+0.00on par
Leganés II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trival Valderas ↓

Leganés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Trival Valderas or draw
60%
Trival Valderas or Leganés II
75%
Draw or Leganés II
65%

Winning margin

Trival Valderas wins by 2+
15%
Leganés II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Trival Valderas 1+ goals
74%
Trival Valderas 2+ goals
38%
Trival Valderas 3+ goals
15%
Leganés II 1+ goals
76%
Leganés II 2+ goals
42%
Leganés II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Trival Valderas (draw refunded)
47%
Leganés II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trival Valderas at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.99 · 114 matches

Leganés II away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.32 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trival Valderas attack 1.33 + Leganés II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Leganés II attack 1.89 + Trival Valderas defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trival Valderas scores more
35%
level
25%
Leganés II scores more
40%

Leganés II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leganés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trival Valderas face Leganés II (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 returns with Trival Valderas hosting Leganés II. Match starts March 22, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Trival Valderas host Leganés II at Estadio La Canaleja.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.