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Tristan Suarez vs Chacarita Juniors — Primera Nacional 2026

Tristan Suarez
Tristan Suarez
Preview
18:00
Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
7/26/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio 20 de Octubre
Big match
43%
Tristan Suarez
model favours
43%28%29%

91% of Tristan Suarez’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Tristan Suarez43%
×Draw28%
Chacarita Juniors29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tristan Suarez
1.27
Chacarita Juniors
0.98

Tristan Suarez creates 30% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 129 away

creates per match

Tristan Suarez
1.29
Chacarita Juniors
0.91

allows per match

Tristan Suarez
1.05
Chacarita Juniors
1.26

finishing

Tristan Suarez+0.00on par
Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tristan Suarez ↓

Chacarita Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tristan Suarez or draw
71%
Tristan Suarez or Chacarita Juniors
72%
Draw or Chacarita Juniors
57%

Winning margin

Tristan Suarez wins by 2+
19%
Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tristan Suarez 1+ goals
72%
Tristan Suarez 2+ goals
36%
Tristan Suarez 3+ goals
14%
Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
62%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
26%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tristan Suarez (draw refunded)
60%
Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tristan Suarez at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.05 · 100 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.26 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tristan Suarez attack 1.29 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.91 + Tristan Suarez defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Tristan Suarez scores more
43%
level
28%
Chacarita Juniors scores more
29%

Tristan Suarez at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Tristan Suarez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tristan Suarez score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in only 18% of Tristan Suarez’s matches
  • Tristan Suarez raise their game against the top half — 33% wins vs the upper half, only 19% vs the lower
  • Tristan Suarez sit 3, Chacarita Juniors 15 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Suarez
WLDWD
Juniors
DWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tristan Suarez host Chacarita Juniors

July 26, 2026: Tristan Suarez take on Chacarita Juniors in Primera Nacional. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tristan Suarez host Chacarita Juniors at Estadio 20 de Octubre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.