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Tripoli SC vs Safa — Premier League 2019

Tripoli SC
Tripoli SC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Safa
Safa
10/11/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Tripoli Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Tripoli SC31%
×Draw28%
Safa41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tripoli SC
1.09
Safa
1.30

Safa creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 70 away

creates per match

Tripoli SC
0.85
Safa
1.31

allows per match

Tripoli SC
1.29
Safa
1.34

finishing

Tripoli SC+0.00on par
Safa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tripoli SC ↓

Safa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tripoli SC or draw
59%
Tripoli SC or Safa
72%
Draw or Safa
69%

Winning margin

Tripoli SC wins by 2+
12%
Safa wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tripoli SC 1+ goals
66%
Tripoli SC 2+ goals
30%
Tripoli SC 3+ goals
10%
Safa 1+ goals
73%
Safa 2+ goals
37%
Safa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)
43%
Safa (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tripoli SC at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.29 · 48 matches

Safa away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tripoli SC attack 0.85 + Safa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.09

Safa attack 1.31 + Tripoli SC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tripoli SC scores more
31%
level
28%
Safa scores more
41%

Safa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tripoli SC 0–3 Safa

Safa beat Tripoli SC 3-0 in Premier League on October 11, 2020.

The match was played at Tripoli Municipal Stadium in Tarabulus.