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Tri-Cities vs West Virginia Alliance — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
PST
23:00
West Virginia Alliance
West Virginia Alliance
7/10/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 52TVA Credit Union Park (Johnson City, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities46%
×Draw22%
West Virginia Alliance31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
1.88
West Virginia Alliance
1.51

Tri-Cities creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
West Virginia Alliance
1.49

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
West Virginia Alliance
1.93

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
West Virginia Alliance+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

West Virginia Alliance →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
69%
Tri-Cities or West Virginia Alliance
78%
Draw or West Virginia Alliance
54%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
26%
West Virginia Alliance wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
85%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
56%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
29%
West Virginia Alliance 1+ goals
78%
West Virginia Alliance 2+ goals
44%
West Virginia Alliance 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
60%
West Virginia Alliance (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

West Virginia Alliance away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.93 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + West Virginia Alliance defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.88

West Virginia Alliance attack 1.49 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
46%
level
22%
West Virginia Alliance scores more
31%

Tri-Cities at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tri-Cities host West Virginia Alliance

July 10, 2020: Tri-Cities take on West Virginia Alliance in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tri-Cities host West Virginia Alliance at TVA Credit Union Park (Johnson City, Tennessee).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.