Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tri-Cities vs Wake — USL League Two 2018

Tri-Cities
Tri-Cities
PST
23:00
Wake
Wake
6/20/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 36TVA Credit Union Park (Johnson City, Tennessee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Tri-Cities55%
×Draw20%
Wake25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tri-Cities
2.28
Wake
1.48

Tri-Cities creates 54% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tri-Cities
1.82
Wake
1.44

allows per match

Tri-Cities
1.53
Wake
2.74

finishing

Tri-Cities+0.00on par
Wake+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tri-Cities ↓

Wake →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Tri-Cities or draw
75%
Tri-Cities or Wake
80%
Draw or Wake
45%

Winning margin

Tri-Cities wins by 2+
34%
Wake wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tri-Cities 1+ goals
90%
Tri-Cities 2+ goals
66%
Tri-Cities 3+ goals
39%
Wake 1+ goals
77%
Wake 2+ goals
43%
Wake 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Tri-Cities (draw refunded)
69%
Wake (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tri-Cities at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Wake away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tri-Cities attack 1.82 + Wake defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.28

Wake attack 1.44 + Tri-Cities defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tri-Cities scores more
55%
level
20%
Wake scores more
25%

Tri-Cities at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tri-Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tri-Cities host Wake

June 20, 2020: Tri-Cities take on Wake in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tri-Cities host Wake at TVA Credit Union Park (Johnson City, Tennessee).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.