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Trenčín W vs Petržalka W — I Liga - Women 2020

Trenčín W
Trenčín W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Petržalka W
Petržalka W
11/18/2023I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 13Areál This Is my sen-akademy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Trenčín W47%
×Draw20%
Petržalka W32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trenčín W
2.29
Petržalka W
1.88

Trenčín W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 69 away

creates per match

Trenčín W
1.93
Petržalka W
1.38

allows per match

Trenčín W
2.37
Petržalka W
2.65

finishing

Trenčín W+0.00on par
Petržalka W+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trenčín W ↓

Petržalka W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Trenčín W or draw
68%
Trenčín W or Petržalka W
80%
Draw or Petržalka W
53%

Winning margin

Trenčín W wins by 2+
28%
Petržalka W wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Trenčín W 1+ goals
90%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
66%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
40%
Petržalka W 1+ goals
85%
Petržalka W 2+ goals
56%
Petržalka W 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Trenčín W (draw refunded)
59%
Petržalka W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trenčín W at home — creates 1.93, concedes 2.37 · 67 matches

Petržalka W away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.65 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trenčín W attack 1.93 + Petržalka W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.29

Petržalka W attack 1.38 + Trenčín W defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trenčín W scores more
47%
level
20%
Petržalka W scores more
32%

Trenčín W at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trenčín W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trenčín W vs Petržalka W

Trenčín W and Petržalka W drew 1-1 in I Liga - Women on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Areál This Is my sen-akademy in Trenčín.