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Trelleborg W vs Göteborg W — Elitettan 2021

Trelleborg W
Trelleborg W
Preview
12:00
Göteborg W
Göteborg W
8/22/2026ElitettanElitettan · Round 15
43%
Göteborg W
model favours
33%24%43%

Trelleborg W win just 40% against the top half (vs 81% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Trelleborg W33%
×Draw24%
Göteborg W43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg W
1.38
Göteborg W
1.60

Göteborg W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 5 away

creates per match

Trelleborg W
2.35
Göteborg W
2.40

allows per match

Trelleborg W
0.81
Göteborg W
0.40

finishing

Trelleborg W+0.00on par
Göteborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg W ↓

Göteborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Trelleborg W or draw
57%
Trelleborg W or Göteborg W
76%
Draw or Göteborg W
67%

Winning margin

Trelleborg W wins by 2+
15%
Göteborg W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Trelleborg W 1+ goals
75%
Trelleborg W 2+ goals
40%
Trelleborg W 3+ goals
16%
Göteborg W 1+ goals
80%
Göteborg W 2+ goals
47%
Göteborg W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)
44%
Göteborg W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg W at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.81 · 31 matches

Göteborg W away — creates 2.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg W attack 2.35 + Göteborg W defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Göteborg W attack 2.40 + Trelleborg W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Trelleborg W scores more
33%
level
24%
Göteborg W scores more
43%

Göteborg W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Göteborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LWWWL
W
WDWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trelleborg W vs Göteborg W — Match Preview

Trelleborg W face Göteborg W on August 22, 2026 in this Elitettan fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.