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Trelleborg vs Utsikten — Ettan - Södra 2019

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
Preview
14:00
Utsikten
Utsikten
8/30/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 19
Big match
55%
Trelleborg
model favours
55%21%23%

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trelleborg55%
×Draw21%
Utsikten23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
2.05
Utsikten
1.26

Trelleborg creates 63% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 55 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
2.43
Utsikten
1.38

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.14
Utsikten
1.67

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Utsikten+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Utsikten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
77%
Trelleborg or Utsikten
79%
Draw or Utsikten
45%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
33%
Utsikten wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
87%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
61%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
33%
Utsikten 1+ goals
72%
Utsikten 2+ goals
36%
Utsikten 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
70%
Utsikten (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Utsikten away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 2.43 + Utsikten defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.05

Utsikten attack 1.38 + Trelleborg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Trelleborg scores more
55%
level
21%
Utsikten scores more
23%

Trelleborg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Trelleborg sit 1, Utsikten 16 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Trelleborg
DWWLW
Utsikten
LLLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Trelleborg vs Utsikten — Match Preview

Trelleborg face Utsikten on August 30, 2026 in this Ettan - Södra fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.