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Trelleborg vs Osters IF — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Osters IF
Osters IF
5/22/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 9Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Trelleborg37%
×Draw26%
Osters IF36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.33
Osters IF
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 112 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Osters IF
1.35

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Osters IF
1.36

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Osters IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Osters IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
64%
Trelleborg or Osters IF
74%
Draw or Osters IF
63%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
17%
Osters IF wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
74%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
38%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
15%
Osters IF 1+ goals
73%
Osters IF 2+ goals
38%
Osters IF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
51%
Osters IF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Osters IF away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.36 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Osters IF defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Osters IF attack 1.35 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Trelleborg scores more
37%
level
26%
Osters IF scores more
36%

Trelleborg at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Trelleborg 1–2 Osters IF

Osters IF beat Trelleborg 2-1 in Superettan on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.