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Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orgryte IS
Orgryte IS
9/12/2022SuperettanSuperettan · Round 23Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Trelleborg40%
×Draw26%
Orgryte IS34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.39
Orgryte IS
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 122 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
Orgryte IS
1.29

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.46

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Orgryte IS+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Orgryte IS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
66%
Trelleborg or Orgryte IS
74%
Draw or Orgryte IS
60%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
19%
Orgryte IS wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
75%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
40%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
16%
Orgryte IS 1+ goals
72%
Orgryte IS 2+ goals
36%
Orgryte IS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
54%
Orgryte IS (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

Orgryte IS away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.46 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + Orgryte IS defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Orgryte IS attack 1.29 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trelleborg scores more
40%
level
26%
Orgryte IS scores more
34%

Trelleborg at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trelleborg vs Orgryte IS

Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 2-1 in Superettan on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.