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Trelleborg vs Kristianstad — Ettan - Södra 2019

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
Preview
11:00
Kristianstad
Kristianstad
10/10/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 26
63%
Trelleborg
model favours
63%20%17%

Kristianstad score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Trelleborg63%
×Draw20%
Kristianstad17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
2.24
Kristianstad
1.09

Trelleborg creates 106% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 24 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
2.43
Kristianstad
1.04

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.14
Kristianstad
2.04

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
Kristianstad+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

Kristianstad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
83%
Trelleborg or Kristianstad
80%
Draw or Kristianstad
37%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
40%
Kristianstad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
89%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
65%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
38%
Kristianstad 1+ goals
66%
Kristianstad 2+ goals
30%
Kristianstad 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
78%
Kristianstad (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 2.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Kristianstad away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 2.43 + Kristianstad defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.24

Kristianstad attack 1.04 + Trelleborg defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Trelleborg scores more
63%
level
20%
Kristianstad scores more
17%

Trelleborg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches
  • Trelleborg sit 1, Kristianstad 13 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Trelleborg
DWWLW
Kristianstad
LDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Trelleborg host Kristianstad

October 10, 2026: Trelleborg take on Kristianstad in Ettan - Södra. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.