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Trelleborg vs IK brage — Superettan 2018

Trelleborg
Trelleborg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IK brage
IK brage
6/5/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 11Vångavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Trelleborg39%
×Draw26%
IK brage35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trelleborg
1.37
IK brage
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 127 away

creates per match

Trelleborg
1.31
IK brage
1.30

allows per match

Trelleborg
1.26
IK brage
1.43

finishing

Trelleborg+0.00on par
IK brage+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trelleborg ↓

IK brage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Trelleborg or draw
65%
Trelleborg or IK brage
74%
Draw or IK brage
61%

Winning margin

Trelleborg wins by 2+
18%
IK brage wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Trelleborg 1+ goals
75%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
40%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
16%
IK brage 1+ goals
72%
IK brage 2+ goals
37%
IK brage 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Trelleborg (draw refunded)
53%
IK brage (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trelleborg at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.26 · 108 matches

IK brage away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.43 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trelleborg attack 1.31 + IK brage defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.37

IK brage attack 1.30 + Trelleborg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Trelleborg scores more
39%
level
26%
IK brage scores more
35%

Trelleborg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superettan: Trelleborg 1–0 IK brage

Trelleborg beat IK brage 1-0 in Superettan on June 5, 2023.

The match was played at Vångavallen in Trelleborg.