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Treaty United vs Wexford — First Division 2026

Treaty United
Treaty United
Preview
18:45
Wexford
Wexford
9/4/2026First DivisionFirst Division · Round 30Markets Field
Big match
44%
Treaty United
model favours
44%25%31%

Treaty United score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Treaty United44%
×Draw25%
Wexford31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty United
1.54
Wexford
1.27

Treaty United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 118 away

creates per match

Treaty United
1.36
Wexford
1.19

allows per match

Treaty United
1.35
Wexford
1.72

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par
Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 56No: 4456%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Wexford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw
69%
Treaty United or Wexford
75%
Draw or Wexford
56%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+
22%
Wexford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals
79%
Treaty United 2+ goals
45%
Treaty United 3+ goals
20%
Wexford 1+ goals
72%
Wexford 2+ goals
36%
Wexford 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)
58%
Wexford (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.36 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wexford attack 1.19 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Treaty United scores more
44%
level
25%
Wexford scores more
31%

Treaty United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wexford score first in only 31% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of Wexford’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 69% over 2.5)
  • 69% of Wexford’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Treaty United’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
United
WLWWD
Wexford
WLDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Treaty United vs Wexford — Match Preview

Treaty United face Wexford on September 4, 2026 in this First Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Treaty United host Wexford at Markets Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.