Treaty United 1–1 Wexford: Result & Stats

Treaty United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wexford

M. Ludden 77' (pen)

D. Levingston 15'

6/5/2023

First Division · Round 18Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Treaty United44%

×Draw25%

Wexford31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Treaty UnitedExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.27

Treaty United

1.54

Wexford

1.27

Treaty United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 118 away

1.36

creates per match

1.19

1.35

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Treaty United

1.36

Wexford

1.19

allows per match

Treaty United

1.35

Wexford

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Wexford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw

69%

Treaty United or Wexford

75%

Draw or Wexford

56%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+

22%

Wexford wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals

79%

Treaty United 2+ goals

45%

Treaty United 3+ goals

20%

Wexford 1+ goals

72%

Wexford 2+ goals

36%

Wexford 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)

58%

Wexford (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.72 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.36 + Wexford defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wexford attack 1.19 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Treaty United scores more

44%

level

25%

Wexford scores more

31%

Treaty United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Treaty United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

28'

39'

42'

54'

60'

W. Armshaw← D. Collins

68'

C. Levingston← J. Tallon

69'

A. Dobbs

77'

M. LuddenPenalty

79'

D. Nwankwo

83'

S. Kirkland← D. Nwankwo

84'

C. Conroy

86'

S. Fitzpatrick← K. Chambers

89'

C. Piper

Treaty

Wexford

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: T. Barrett

60'▲W. Armshaw←▼D. Collins

83'▲S. Kirkland←▼D. Nwankwo

Treaty United substitutes

ArmshawKirklandKellyCoadyQuinlivanCoughlanMurphyLynch

Manager: J. Keddy

68'▲C. Levingston←▼J. Tallon

86'▲S. Fitzpatrick←▼K. Chambers

Wexford substitutes

LevingstonFitzpatrickCoxFurlongFarrellCrawfordHarnettDunne

First Division: Treaty United 1–1 Wexford

Treaty United and Wexford drew 1-1 in First Division on June 5, 2023.

Goals: D. Levingston (15'), M. Ludden (77' pen).

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.

Treaty United vs Wexford — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Treaty United 1–1 Wexford