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Treaty United vs Cork City — First Division 2019

Treaty United
Treaty United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cork City
Cork City
3/22/2024First DivisionFirst Division · Round 6Markets Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Treaty United27%
×Draw26%
Cork City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Treaty United
1.04
Cork City
1.47

Cork City creates 41% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 58 away

creates per match

Treaty United
1.35
Cork City
1.59

allows per match

Treaty United
1.35
Cork City
0.74

finishing

Treaty United+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Treaty United ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Treaty United or draw
53%
Treaty United or Cork City
74%
Draw or Cork City
73%

Winning margin

Treaty United wins by 2+
10%
Cork City wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Treaty United 1+ goals
65%
Treaty United 2+ goals
28%
Treaty United 3+ goals
9%
Cork City 1+ goals
77%
Cork City 2+ goals
43%
Cork City 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Treaty United (draw refunded)
36%
Cork City (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Treaty United at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 97 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Treaty United attack 1.35 + Cork City defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.04

Cork City attack 1.59 + Treaty United defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Treaty United scores more
27%
level
26%
Cork City scores more
47%

Cork City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cork City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First Division: Treaty United 0–0 Cork City

Treaty United and Cork City drew 0-0 in First Division on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Markets Field in Limerick.