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Tre Fiori vs Faetano — Coppa Titano 2020

Tre Fiori
Tre Fioriadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Faetano
Faetano
10/26/2023Coppa TitanoCoppa Titano · Round of 16Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Tre Fiori68%
×Draw21%
Faetano11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Fiori
1.90
Faetano
0.61

Tre Fiori creates 211% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Tre Fiori
1.80
Faetano
0.43

allows per match

Tre Fiori
0.80
Faetano
2.00

finishing

Tre Fiori+0.00on par
Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Fiori ↓

Faetano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tre Fiori or draw
89%
Tre Fiori or Faetano
79%
Draw or Faetano
32%

Winning margin

Tre Fiori wins by 2+
42%
Faetano wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Tre Fiori 1+ goals
85%
Tre Fiori 2+ goals
56%
Tre Fiori 3+ goals
29%
Faetano 1+ goals
46%
Faetano 2+ goals
13%
Faetano 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Tre Fiori (draw refunded)
86%
Faetano (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Fiori at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Faetano away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Fiori attack 1.80 + Faetano defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.90

Faetano attack 0.43 + Tre Fiori defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Tre Fiori scores more
68%
level
21%
Faetano scores more
11%

Tre Fiori at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Tre Fiori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tre Fiori vs Faetano

Tre Fiori and Faetano drew 0-0 in Coppa Titano on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva in Acquaviva.