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Tre Fiori vs Faetano — League #404 2026

Tre Fiori
Tre Fiori
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Faetano
Faetano
9/21/2019League #404League #404 · Round 1Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Tre Fiori57%
×Draw21%
Faetano21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tre Fiori
2.05
Faetano
1.17

Tre Fiori creates 75% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

creates per match

Tre Fiori
2.00
Faetano
1.20

allows per match

Tre Fiori
1.13
Faetano
2.11

finishing

Tre Fiori+0.00on par
Faetano+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tre Fiori ↓

Faetano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Tre Fiori or draw
79%
Tre Fiori or Faetano
79%
Draw or Faetano
43%

Winning margin

Tre Fiori wins by 2+
35%
Faetano wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Tre Fiori 1+ goals
87%
Tre Fiori 2+ goals
61%
Tre Fiori 3+ goals
33%
Faetano 1+ goals
69%
Faetano 2+ goals
33%
Faetano 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tre Fiori (draw refunded)
73%
Faetano (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tre Fiori at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.13 · 38 matches

Faetano away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tre Fiori attack 2.00 + Faetano defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.05

Faetano attack 1.20 + Tre Fiori defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tre Fiori scores more
57%
level
21%
Faetano scores more
21%

Tre Fiori at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Tre Fiori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tre Fiori vs Faetano

Tre Fiori beat Faetano 3-2 in League #404 on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini in Fiorentino.