TRAU 2–2 Real Kashmir: Result & Stats | I-League

TRAU

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Real Kashmir

12/22/2019

I-League · Round 5Khuman Lampak Main Stadium (Imphal)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

TRAU36%

×Draw27%

Real Kashmir37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TRAUExpected goals in this matchReal Kashmir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.22

TRAU

1.21

Real Kashmir

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 59 away

1.26

creates per match

1.12

1.32

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

TRAU

1.26

Real Kashmir

1.12

allows per match

TRAU

1.32

Real Kashmir

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TRAU+0.00on par

Real Kashmir+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TRAU ↓

Real Kashmir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

TRAU or draw

63%

TRAU or Real Kashmir

73%

Draw or Real Kashmir

64%

Winning margin

TRAU wins by 2+

15%

Real Kashmir wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

TRAU 1+ goals

70%

TRAU 2+ goals

34%

TRAU 3+ goals

12%

Real Kashmir 1+ goals

70%

Real Kashmir 2+ goals

34%

Real Kashmir 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

TRAU (draw refunded)

50%

Real Kashmir (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TRAU at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.32 · 50 matches

Real Kashmir away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.15 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TRAU attack 1.26 + Real Kashmir defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Real Kashmir attack 1.12 + TRAU defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

TRAU scores more

36%

level

27%

Real Kashmir scores more

37%

Real Kashmir at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Real Kashmir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff