Trat FC 1–0 Kasetsart FC: Result & Stats

Trat FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kasetsart FC

10/16/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 9Trat Provincial Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Trat FC60%

×Draw22%

Kasetsart FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Trat FCExpected goals in this matchKasetsart FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.91

Trat FC

1.86

Kasetsart FC

0.91

Trat FC creates 104% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 132 away

1.87

creates per match

0.88

0.93

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Trat FC

1.87

Kasetsart FC

0.88

allows per match

Trat FC

0.93

Kasetsart FC

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trat FC+0.00on par

Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trat FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Trat FC or draw

82%

Trat FC or Kasetsart FC

78%

Draw or Kasetsart FC

40%

Winning margin

Trat FC wins by 2+

35%

Kasetsart FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Trat FC 1+ goals

84%

Trat FC 2+ goals

55%

Trat FC 3+ goals

28%

Kasetsart FC 1+ goals

60%

Kasetsart FC 2+ goals

23%

Kasetsart FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Trat FC (draw refunded)

77%

Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trat FC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.93 · 84 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trat FC attack 1.87 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.86

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Trat FC defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Trat FC scores more

60%

level

22%

Kasetsart FC scores more

18%

Trat FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff