Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Trastevere vs Team Nuova Florida — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Trastevere
Trastevere
PST
13:00
Team Nuova Florida
Team Nuova Florida
5/3/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 34Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet (Roma)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Trastevere47%
×Draw25%
Team Nuova Florida29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trastevere
1.62
Team Nuova Florida
1.21

Trastevere creates 34% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 29 away

creates per match

Trastevere
1.83
Team Nuova Florida
1.24

allows per match

Trastevere
1.18
Team Nuova Florida
1.41

finishing

Trastevere+0.00on par
Team Nuova Florida+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trastevere ↓

Team Nuova Florida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Trastevere or draw
71%
Trastevere or Team Nuova Florida
75%
Draw or Team Nuova Florida
53%

Winning margin

Trastevere wins by 2+
24%
Team Nuova Florida wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Trastevere 1+ goals
80%
Trastevere 2+ goals
48%
Trastevere 3+ goals
22%
Team Nuova Florida 1+ goals
70%
Team Nuova Florida 2+ goals
34%
Team Nuova Florida 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Trastevere (draw refunded)
62%
Team Nuova Florida (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trastevere at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 66 matches

Team Nuova Florida away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trastevere attack 1.83 + Team Nuova Florida defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.62

Team Nuova Florida attack 1.24 + Trastevere defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Trastevere scores more
47%
level
25%
Team Nuova Florida scores more
29%

Trastevere at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Trastevere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Trastevere host Team Nuova Florida

May 3, 2020: Trastevere take on Team Nuova Florida in Serie D - Girone G. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Trastevere host Team Nuova Florida at Centro Sportivo Vittorio Bachelet (Roma).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.