Trasandino 0–0 General Velásquez: Result & Stats

Trasandino

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

General Velásquez

9/24/2022

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio Regional de Los Andes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Trasandino40%

×Draw27%

General Velásquez33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TrasandinoExpected goals in this matchGeneral Velásquez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.19

Trasandino

1.34

General Velásquez

1.19

Trasandino creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 77 away

1.38

creates per match

1.06

1.31

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Trasandino

1.38

General Velásquez

1.06

allows per match

Trasandino

1.31

General Velásquez

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Trasandino+0.00on par

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trasandino ↓

General Velásquez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Trasandino or draw

67%

Trasandino or General Velásquez

73%

Draw or General Velásquez

60%

Winning margin

Trasandino wins by 2+

18%

General Velásquez wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Trasandino 1+ goals

74%

Trasandino 2+ goals

39%

Trasandino 3+ goals

15%

General Velásquez 1+ goals

70%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

33%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Trasandino (draw refunded)

55%

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trasandino at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.31 · 55 matches

General Velásquez away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.31 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trasandino attack 1.38 + General Velásquez defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

General Velásquez attack 1.06 + Trasandino defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Trasandino scores more

40%

level

27%

General Velásquez scores more

33%

Trasandino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Trasandino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Núñez← I. Maturana

63'

Á. López← J. Uribe

63'

J. Pavez← J. Tobar

63'

T. Pino← M. Villablanca

64'

J. Llanos← J. Arancibia

64'

W. Martínez← Á. Melo

73'

S. Medina← J. Segovia

76'

J. Pavez

81'

M. Ferrari← N. Forttes

83'

D. Martín← P. Troncoso

Trasandino

General

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Arrué

46'▲B. Núñez←▼I. Maturana

64'▲J. Llanos←▼J. Arancibia

64'▲W. Martínez←▼Á. Melo

73'▲S. Medina←▼J. Segovia

81'▲M. Ferrari←▼N. Forttes

Trasandino substitutes

NúñezLlanosMartínezMedinaFerrariSimónMeyer

Manager: C. Bustamante

63'▲Á. López←▼J. Uribe

63'▲J. Pavez←▼J. Tobar

63'▲T. Pino←▼M. Villablanca

83'▲D. Martín←▼P. Troncoso

General Velásquez substitutes

LópezPavezPinoMartínFuentesCarreñoKovacic