Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Transvaal vs Leo Victor — Eerste Divisie 2019

Transvaal
Transvaal
FT
4 – 0
Leo Victor
Leo Victor
5/24/2024Eerste DivisieEerste Divisie · Round 12Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Transvaal40%
×Draw24%
Leo Victor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Transvaal
1.63
Leo Victor
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 57 away

creates per match

Transvaal
1.65
Leo Victor
1.79

allows per match

Transvaal
1.27
Leo Victor
1.60

finishing

Transvaal+0.00on par
Leo Victor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Transvaal ↓

Leo Victor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Transvaal or draw
64%
Transvaal or Leo Victor
76%
Draw or Leo Victor
60%

Winning margin

Transvaal wins by 2+
20%
Leo Victor wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Transvaal 1+ goals
80%
Transvaal 2+ goals
48%
Transvaal 3+ goals
22%
Leo Victor 1+ goals
78%
Leo Victor 2+ goals
45%
Leo Victor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Transvaal (draw refunded)
53%
Leo Victor (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Transvaal at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

Leo Victor away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.60 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Transvaal attack 1.65 + Leo Victor defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.63

Leo Victor attack 1.79 + Transvaal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Transvaal scores more
40%
level
24%
Leo Victor scores more
36%

Transvaal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Transvaal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eerste Divisie: Transvaal 4–0 Leo Victor

Transvaal beat Leo Victor 4-0 in Eerste Divisie on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Dr. Ir. Franklin Essed Stadion in Paramaribo.