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TransINVEST Vilnius vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

TransINVEST Vilnius
TransINVEST Vilnius
Preview
16:30
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
9/19/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 32FK TransINVEST stadium
Big match
51%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
model favours
24%25%51%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TransINVEST Vilnius24%
×Draw25%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.03
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.60

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 55% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 127 away

creates per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.21
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.87

allows per match

TransINVEST Vilnius
1.32
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86

finishing

TransINVEST Vilnius+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TransINVEST Vilnius ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

TransINVEST Vilnius or draw
49%
TransINVEST Vilnius or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
75%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
76%

Winning margin

TransINVEST Vilnius wins by 2+
9%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

TransINVEST Vilnius 1+ goals
64%
TransINVEST Vilnius 2+ goals
28%
TransINVEST Vilnius 3+ goals
9%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
80%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
47%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

TransINVEST Vilnius (draw refunded)
33%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TransINVEST Vilnius at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.86 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TransINVEST Vilnius attack 1.21 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.87 + TransINVEST Vilnius defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

TransINVEST Vilnius scores more
24%
level
25%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
51%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FK Zalgiris Vilnius score first in only 29% of matches
  • TransINVEST Vilnius score first in only 33% of matches
  • Both teams score in 72% of TransINVEST Vilnius’s matches
  • 67% of TransINVEST Vilnius’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 31% of FK Zalgiris Vilnius’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 23% of TransINVEST Vilnius’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Vilnius
LDWD
Vilnius
WWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TransINVEST Vilnius face FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga)

A Lyga returns with TransINVEST Vilnius hosting FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TransINVEST Vilnius host FK Zalgiris Vilnius at FK TransINVEST stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.