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Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn — Meistriliiga 2026

Trans Narva
Trans Narva
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Flora Tallinn
Flora Tallinn
11/1/2023MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 34Kalevi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Trans Narva20%
×Draw22%
Flora Tallinn58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trans Narva
1.04
Flora Tallinn
1.93

Flora Tallinn creates 86% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 133 away

creates per match

Trans Narva
1.25
Flora Tallinn
2.39

allows per match

Trans Narva
1.47
Flora Tallinn
0.83

finishing

Trans Narva+0.00on par
Flora Tallinn+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trans Narva ↓

Flora Tallinn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Trans Narva or draw
42%
Trans Narva or Flora Tallinn
78%
Draw or Flora Tallinn
80%

Winning margin

Trans Narva wins by 2+
7%
Flora Tallinn wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Trans Narva 1+ goals
65%
Trans Narva 2+ goals
28%
Trans Narva 3+ goals
9%
Flora Tallinn 1+ goals
85%
Flora Tallinn 2+ goals
57%
Flora Tallinn 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Trans Narva (draw refunded)
26%
Flora Tallinn (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trans Narva at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 131 matches

Flora Tallinn away — creates 2.39, concedes 0.83 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trans Narva attack 1.25 + Flora Tallinn defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Flora Tallinn attack 2.39 + Trans Narva defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Trans Narva scores more
20%
level
22%
Flora Tallinn scores more
58%

Flora Tallinn at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Flora Tallinn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trans Narva vs Flora Tallinn

Flora Tallinn beat Trans Narva 3-1 in Meistriliiga on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Kalevi Staadion in Narva.