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Tranmere vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
14:00
Walsall
Walsall
9/26/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 8Prenton Park
Big match
45%
Walsall
model favours
30%25%45%
1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tranmere30%
×Draw25%
Walsall45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.20
Walsall
1.55

Walsall creates 29% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Walsall
1.85

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Walsall
1.29

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Walsall-0.03on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
55%
Tranmere or Walsall
75%
Draw or Walsall
70%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
12%
Walsall wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
70%
Tranmere 2+ goals
34%
Tranmere 3+ goals
12%
Walsall 1+ goals
79%
Walsall 2+ goals
46%
Walsall 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
39%
Walsall (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.29 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Walsall defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Walsall attack 1.85 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tranmere scores more
30%
level
25%
Walsall scores more
45%

Walsall at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Walsall
Direct / counter-attacking
50%Possession43%
67%Pass accuracy64%
12.1Shots11.8
1.13xGBiggest gap1.47
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereWalsall

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Tranmere
1
Draws
6
Walsall
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
1–32–41–51–01–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Walsall
LDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tranmere vs Walsall — Match Preview

Tranmere face Walsall on September 26, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tranmere host Walsall at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.