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Tranmere vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
1/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Prenton Park
Big match
37%
Swindon Town
model favours
36%27%37%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Tranmere36%
×Draw27%
Swindon Town37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.28
Swindon Town
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Swindon Town
1.34

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Swindon Town
1.46

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
63%
Tranmere or Swindon Town
73%
Draw or Swindon Town
64%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
16%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
72%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
37%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
50%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.28

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tranmere scores more
36%
level
27%
Swindon Town scores more
37%

Swindon Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Tranmere sit 21, Swindon Town 9 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Swindon Town
Balanced
50%Possession53%
67%Pass accuracy71%
12.0Shots12.5
1.12xGBiggest gap1.50
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereSwindon Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Tranmere
3
Draws
4
Swindon Town
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 60%
0–11–21–31–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Swindon Town

January 9, 2027: Tranmere take on Swindon Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Swindon Town at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.