Tranmere 3–0 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Tranmere

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

K. Hemmings 72' (pen), 6'

P. Glatzel 58'

2/8/2022

League Two · Round 31Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Tranmere39%

×Draw27%

Swindon Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.21

Tranmere

1.33

Swindon Town

1.21

Tranmere creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

1.09

creates per match

1.22

1.21

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Tranmere

1.09

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Tranmere

1.21

Swindon Town

1.56

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.12scores more

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

66%

Tranmere or Swindon Town

73%

Draw or Swindon Town

61%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

18%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

74%

Tranmere 2+ goals

38%

Tranmere 3+ goals

15%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

70%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

34%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

54%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.09 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Tranmere defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more

39%

level

27%

Swindon Town scores more

34%

Tranmere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

P. Glatzel

Tranmere · F

8.3

Match Events

2'

Tom Davies

6'

K. Hemmings↳ P. Glatzel

29'

J. Mitchell-Lawson← J. Williams

58'

P. Glatzel↳ J. Dacres-Cogley

60'

Jayden Mitchell-Lawson

72'

K. HemmingsPenalty

76'

H. Parsons← J. Davison

80'

R. Aguiar← H. McKirdy

81'

C. Jolley← K. Hemmings

82'

E. Nevitt← P. Glatzel

85'

Ellis Iandolo

86'

C. McManaman← J. Hawkes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereSwindon

Overview

36%Possession64%

14Total Shots6

3Corners2

17Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target0

6Off Target3

3Blocked3

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

36%Possession64%

273Total Passes493

161Accurate Passes374

59%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides3

League Two: Tranmere 3–0 Swindon Town

Tranmere beat Swindon Town 3-0 in League Two on February 8, 2022.

Goals: K. Hemmings (6', 72' pen), P. Glatzel (58').

Swindon Town controlled possession (64%) and registered 6 shots to 14.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.

Tranmere vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Tranmere 3–0 Swindon Town