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Tranmere vs Newport County — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Newport County
Newport County
12/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 21Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 165+ matches

Tranmere45%
×Draw27%
Newport County28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.41
Newport County
1.04

Tranmere creates 36% more chances

Season form · 165 home / 179 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.34
Newport County
1.08

allows per match

Tranmere
1.01
Newport County
1.47

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
72%
Tranmere or Newport County
73%
Draw or Newport County
55%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
22%
Newport County wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
76%
Tranmere 2+ goals
41%
Tranmere 3+ goals
17%
Newport County 1+ goals
65%
Newport County 2+ goals
28%
Newport County 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
62%
Newport County (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.01 · 165 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.47 · 179 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.34 + Newport County defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Newport County attack 1.08 + Tranmere defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tranmere scores more
45%
level
27%
Newport County scores more
28%

Tranmere at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tranmere vs Newport County

Tranmere beat Newport County 2-1 in League Two on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Birkenhead, Merseyside.