Tranmere 1–2 Morecambe: Result & Stats | League Two

Tranmere

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Morecambe

P. Clarke 19'

L. McAlinden 45+1'

N. Knight-Percival 15'

5/20/2021

League Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsPrenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Tranmere47%

×Draw25%

Morecambe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TranmereExpected goals in this matchMorecambe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.12

Tranmere

1.53

Morecambe

1.12

Tranmere creates 37% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 93 away

1.33

creates per match

1.17

1.07

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Tranmere

1.33

Morecambe

1.17

allows per match

Tranmere

1.07

Morecambe

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par

Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Morecambe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw

72%

Tranmere or Morecambe

75%

Draw or Morecambe

53%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+

24%

Morecambe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals

78%

Tranmere 2+ goals

45%

Tranmere 3+ goals

20%

Morecambe 1+ goals

67%

Morecambe 2+ goals

31%

Morecambe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)

63%

Morecambe (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Morecambe away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Morecambe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.53

Morecambe attack 1.17 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Tranmere scores more

47%

level

25%

Morecambe scores more

28%

Tranmere at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Jay Spearing

Tranmere · M

8.0

Match Events

15'

N. Knight-Percival↳ L. McAlinden

19'

P. Clarke↳ L. Ridehalgh

45+1'

L. McAlinden

53'

S. Hendrie← L. Gibson

54'

J. Spearing

71'

C. Blackett-Taylor← K. Woolery

71'

O. Khan← P. Lewis

71'

L. Feeney← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick

77'

L. McAlinden← B. Lyons

78'

J. Vaughan

80'

J. Vaughan← D. Nugent

83'

87'

89'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TranmereMorecambe

Overview

75%Possession25%

17Total Shots7

11Corners3

7Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots7

3On Target4

10Off Target2

4Blocked1

15Inside Box5

2Outside Box2

Passing

75%Possession25%

568Total Passes195

493Accurate Passes95

87%Pass Accuracy49%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls8

4Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1