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Tranmere vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
15:00
Gillingham
Gillingham
2/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Prenton Park
Big match
42%
Tranmere
model favours
42%27%31%
1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Tranmere42%
×Draw27%
Gillingham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.39
Gillingham
1.15

Tranmere creates 21% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Gillingham
1.05

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Gillingham
1.68

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Gillingham-0.32scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
69%
Tranmere or Gillingham
73%
Draw or Gillingham
58%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
20%
Gillingham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
75%
Tranmere 2+ goals
40%
Tranmere 3+ goals
16%
Gillingham 1+ goals
68%
Gillingham 2+ goals
32%
Gillingham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
58%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Gillingham defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.39

Gillingham attack 1.05 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tranmere scores more
42%
level
27%
Gillingham scores more
31%

Tranmere at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Gillingham
Balanced
50%Possession47%
67%Pass accuracy64%
12.0Shots11.3
1.13xGBiggest gap1.24
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereGillingham

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
Tranmere
4
Draws
3
Gillingham
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 67%
1–21–11–10–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Gillingham
WLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Gillingham

February 20, 2027: Tranmere take on Gillingham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Gillingham at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.