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Tranmere vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmereadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
O. Banks 26'
5/10/2019League TwoLeague Two · Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finalsPrenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Tranmere38%
×Draw27%
Forest Green35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.29
Forest Green
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 143 home / 90 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.33
Forest Green
1.36

allows per match

Tranmere
1.07
Forest Green
1.26

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
65%
Tranmere or Forest Green
73%
Draw or Forest Green
62%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
17%
Forest Green wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
72%
Tranmere 2+ goals
37%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Forest Green 1+ goals
70%
Forest Green 2+ goals
34%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
52%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.07 · 143 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.33 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Tranmere defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tranmere scores more
38%
level
27%
Forest Green scores more
35%

Tranmere at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
O. BanksTranmereTranmere · M
7.9

Match Events

15'
Gavin Gunning
26'
O. Banks↳ K. Morris
32'
L. Collins← J. Mondal
62'
J. Smith← K. Morris
66'
G. Williams← D. Grubb
76'
H. Gilmour← O. Banks
88'
P. Digby← R. Brown

Possession

61%Tranmere

Shots

20Tranmere

Pass accuracy

54%Tranmere

Statistics

TranmereForest
Overview
61%Possession39%
20Total Shots6
3Corners1
11Fouls2
Shots
20Total Shots6
5On Target0
10Off Target1
5Blocked5
10Inside Box2
10Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
560Total Passes355
463Accurate Passes255
83%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls2
–Red Cards1
0Offsides1

League Two: Tranmere 1–0 Forest Green

Tranmere beat Forest Green 1-0 in League Two on May 10, 2019.

Goals: O. Banks (26').

Tranmere controlled possession (61%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Prenton Park in Wirral.