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Tranmere vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
Preview
15:00
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
2/27/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Prenton Park
Big match
39%
Tranmere
model favours
39%27%34%

Their last 5 meetings averaged just 0.8 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Tranmere39%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.31
Fleetwood Town
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.10
Fleetwood Town
1.19

allows per match

Tranmere
1.25
Fleetwood Town
1.52

finishing

Tranmere+0.21scores more
Fleetwood Town-0.09on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
66%
Tranmere or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
61%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
17%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
73%
Tranmere 2+ goals
38%
Tranmere 3+ goals
14%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
70%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
34%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
53%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.10 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fleetwood Town attack 1.19 + Tranmere defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tranmere scores more
39%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
34%

Tranmere at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Tranmere
Balanced
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
50%Possession50%
67%Pass accuracy68%
12.0Shots12.1
1.12xGBiggest gap1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
TranmereFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Tranmere
3
Draws
1
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 0.8BTTS: 20%
0–01–00–00–01–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tranmere
WDLWL
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tranmere vs Fleetwood Town — Match Preview

Tranmere face Fleetwood Town on February 27, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Tranmere host Fleetwood Town at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.