Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tranmere vs Bury — League One 2018

Tranmere
Tranmere
PST
14:00
Bury
Bury
8/24/2019League OneLeague One · Round 5Prenton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Tranmere45%
×Draw27%
Bury28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tranmere
1.36
Bury
1.02

Tranmere creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

creates per match

Tranmere
1.13
Bury
0.60

allows per match

Tranmere
1.44
Bury
1.60

finishing

Tranmere+0.00on par
Bury+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranmere ↓

Bury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tranmere or draw
72%
Tranmere or Bury
73%
Draw or Bury
55%

Winning margin

Tranmere wins by 2+
21%
Bury wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Tranmere 1+ goals
74%
Tranmere 2+ goals
39%
Tranmere 3+ goals
16%
Bury 1+ goals
64%
Bury 2+ goals
27%
Bury 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tranmere (draw refunded)
61%
Bury (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranmere at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Bury away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranmere attack 1.13 + Bury defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.36

Bury attack 0.60 + Tranmere defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tranmere scores more
45%
level
27%
Bury scores more
28%

Tranmere at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tranmere will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Tranmere host Bury

August 24, 2019: Tranmere take on Bury in League One. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Tranmere host Bury at Prenton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.