Tranent Juniors vs Civil Service Strollers

Tranent Juniors

Preview

14:00

Civil Service Strollers

8/29/2026

League #731 · Regular Season

64%

Tranent Juniors

model favours

64%17%19%

Tranent Juniors and Civil Service Strollers have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

83%

over 2.5 goals

75%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tranent Juniors64%

×Draw17%

Civil Service Strollers19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tranent JuniorsExpected goals in this matchCivil Service Strollers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.95

1.60

Tranent Juniors

2.95

Civil Service Strollers

1.60

Tranent Juniors creates 84% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

4.40

creates per match

2.00

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Tranent Juniors

4.40

Civil Service Strollers

2.00

allows per match

Tranent Juniors

1.20

Civil Service Strollers

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tranent Juniors+0.00on par

Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tranent Juniors ↓

Civil Service Strollers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Tranent Juniors or draw

81%

Tranent Juniors or Civil Service Strollers

83%

Draw or Civil Service Strollers

36%

Winning margin

Tranent Juniors wins by 2+

44%

Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Tranent Juniors 1+ goals

95%

Tranent Juniors 2+ goals

79%

Tranent Juniors 3+ goals

55%

Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals

80%

Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals

47%

Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Tranent Juniors (draw refunded)

77%

Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tranent Juniors at home — creates 4.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tranent Juniors attack 4.40 + Civil Service Strollers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.95

Civil Service Strollers attack 2.00 + Tranent Juniors defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tranent Juniors scores more

64%

level

17%

Civil Service Strollers scores more

19%

Tranent Juniors at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tranent Juniors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

Juniors

LWLWW

Strollers

DLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff