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Trakai II vs Kauno Žalgiris II — 1 Lyga 2026

Trakai II
Trakai II
FT
4 – 1
Kauno Žalgiris II
Kauno Žalgiris II
7/12/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 6Trakų naujasis stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Trakai II51%
×Draw22%
Kauno Žalgiris II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Trakai II
1.94
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.35

Trakai II creates 44% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 77 away

creates per match

Trakai II
1.74
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.05

allows per match

Trakai II
1.66
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.13

finishing

Trakai II+0.00on par
Kauno Žalgiris II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Trakai II ↓

Kauno Žalgiris II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Trakai II or draw
73%
Trakai II or Kauno Žalgiris II
78%
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
49%

Winning margin

Trakai II wins by 2+
29%
Kauno Žalgiris II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Trakai II 1+ goals
86%
Trakai II 2+ goals
58%
Trakai II 3+ goals
30%
Kauno Žalgiris II 1+ goals
74%
Kauno Žalgiris II 2+ goals
39%
Kauno Žalgiris II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Trakai II (draw refunded)
66%
Kauno Žalgiris II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Trakai II at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

Kauno Žalgiris II away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Trakai II attack 1.74 + Kauno Žalgiris II defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kauno Žalgiris II attack 1.05 + Trakai II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Trakai II scores more
51%
level
22%
Kauno Žalgiris II scores more
27%

Trakai II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Trakai II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Trakai II vs Kauno Žalgiris II

Trakai II beat Kauno Žalgiris II 4-1 in 1 Lyga on July 12, 2020.

The match was played at Trakų naujasis stadionas in Trakai.