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Traiskirchen vs Gloggnitz — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
Preview
17:30
Gloggnitz
Gloggnitz
4/23/2027Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Ost - 25
45%
Traiskirchen
model favours
45%22%33%

Traiskirchen win just 22% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
70%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Traiskirchen45%
×Draw22%
Gloggnitz33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Traiskirchen
1.98
Gloggnitz
1.66

Traiskirchen creates 19% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 31 away

creates per match

Traiskirchen
1.86
Gloggnitz
1.74

allows per match

Traiskirchen
1.57
Gloggnitz
2.10

finishing

Traiskirchen+0.00on par
Gloggnitz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Traiskirchen ↓

Gloggnitz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Traiskirchen or draw
67%
Traiskirchen or Gloggnitz
78%
Draw or Gloggnitz
55%

Winning margin

Traiskirchen wins by 2+
25%
Gloggnitz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Traiskirchen 1+ goals
86%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
59%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
31%
Gloggnitz 1+ goals
81%
Gloggnitz 2+ goals
49%
Gloggnitz 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
58%
Gloggnitz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Traiskirchen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

Gloggnitz away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Traiskirchen attack 1.86 + Gloggnitz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.98

Gloggnitz attack 1.74 + Traiskirchen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Traiskirchen scores more
45%
level
22%
Gloggnitz scores more
33%

Traiskirchen at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Traiskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Traiskirchen
WLLLW
Gloggnitz
WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Traiskirchen vs Gloggnitz — Match Preview

Traiskirchen face Gloggnitz on April 23, 2027 in this Regionalliga - Ost fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.