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Traiskirchen vs Bruck/Leitha — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Bruck/Leitha
Bruck/Leitha
10/12/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 11Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Traiskirchen (Traiskirchen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Traiskirchen53%
×Draw22%
Bruck/Leitha25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Traiskirchen
2.02
Bruck/Leitha
1.33

Traiskirchen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 54 away

creates per match

Traiskirchen
1.86
Bruck/Leitha
1.09

allows per match

Traiskirchen
1.57
Bruck/Leitha
2.17

finishing

Traiskirchen+0.00on par
Bruck/Leitha+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Traiskirchen ↓

Bruck/Leitha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Traiskirchen or draw
75%
Traiskirchen or Bruck/Leitha
78%
Draw or Bruck/Leitha
47%

Winning margin

Traiskirchen wins by 2+
31%
Bruck/Leitha wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Traiskirchen 1+ goals
87%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
60%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
33%
Bruck/Leitha 1+ goals
74%
Bruck/Leitha 2+ goals
38%
Bruck/Leitha 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
68%
Bruck/Leitha (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Traiskirchen at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

Bruck/Leitha away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.17 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Traiskirchen attack 1.86 + Bruck/Leitha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bruck/Leitha attack 1.09 + Traiskirchen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Traiskirchen scores more
53%
level
22%
Bruck/Leitha scores more
25%

Traiskirchen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Traiskirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Traiskirchen vs Bruck/Leitha

Bruck/Leitha beat Traiskirchen 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on October 12, 2018.

The match was played at Sport- und Freizeitzentrum Traiskirchen (Traiskirchen).