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TPV vs SalPa — Ykkönen 2026

TPV
TPV
Preview
15:30
SalPa
SalPa
8/11/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageTammelan Stadion
40%
TPV
model favours
40%26%34%

Both sides lean high-scoring (77% and 83% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TPV40%
×Draw26%
SalPa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
1.39
SalPa
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 21 away

creates per match

TPV
1.25
SalPa
1.05

allows per match

TPV
1.50
SalPa
1.52

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
SalPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

SalPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

TPV or draw
66%
TPV or SalPa
74%
Draw or SalPa
60%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
19%
SalPa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
75%
TPV 2+ goals
40%
TPV 3+ goals
16%
SalPa 1+ goals
72%
SalPa 2+ goals
36%
SalPa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
54%
SalPa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

SalPa away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.25 + SalPa defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.39

SalPa attack 1.05 + TPV defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TPV scores more
40%
level
26%
SalPa scores more
34%

TPV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "TPV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of SalPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • SalPa are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 77% of TPV’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • SalPa have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • TPV score first in only 31% of matches
  • TPV win just 11% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
TPV
LWWWL
SalPa
LWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPV face SalPa (Ykkönen)

Ykkönen returns with TPV hosting SalPa. Match starts August 11, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TPV host SalPa at Tammelan Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.