Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TPV vs Rops — Ykkönen 2026

TPV
TPV
Preview
15:00
Rops
Rops
8/1/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageKauppi 3 - Artificial grass
Big match
40%
Rops
model favours
36%25%40%

Rops are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TPV36%
×Draw25%
Rops40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
1.43
Rops
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 49 away

creates per match

TPV
1.25
Rops
1.55

allows per match

TPV
1.50
Rops
1.61

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
Rops+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

Rops →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

TPV or draw
60%
TPV or Rops
75%
Draw or Rops
64%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
17%
Rops wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
76%
TPV 2+ goals
42%
TPV 3+ goals
17%
Rops 1+ goals
78%
Rops 2+ goals
45%
Rops 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
47%
Rops (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

Rops away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.61 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.25 + Rops defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Rops attack 1.55 + TPV defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

TPV scores more
36%
level
25%
Rops scores more
40%

Rops at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rops will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 77% of TPV’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • TPV score first in only 31% of matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — TPV 2 vs Rops 1
  • TPV win just 11% against the top half (vs 36% against the bottom)
  • 42% of Rops’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
TPV
LWWWL
Rops
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPV face Rops (Ykkönen)

Ykkönen returns with TPV hosting Rops. Match starts August 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TPV host Rops at Kauppi 3 - Artificial grass.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.