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TPV vs PKKU — Ykkönen 2026

TPV
TPV
Preview
11:00
PKKU
PKKU
8/29/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageKauppi 3 - Artificial grass
42%
PKKU
model favours
35%22%42%

PKKU have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
67%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

TPV35%
×Draw22%
PKKU42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TPV
1.63
PKKU
1.81

PKKU creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 34 away

creates per match

TPV
1.25
PKKU
2.12

allows per match

TPV
1.50
PKKU
2.00

finishing

TPV+0.00on par
PKKU+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 67No: 3367%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TPV ↓

PKKU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

TPV or draw
58%
TPV or PKKU
78%
Draw or PKKU
65%

Winning margin

TPV wins by 2+
17%
PKKU wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

TPV 1+ goals
80%
TPV 2+ goals
48%
TPV 3+ goals
22%
PKKU 1+ goals
84%
PKKU 2+ goals
54%
PKKU 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

TPV (draw refunded)
45%
PKKU (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TPV at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

PKKU away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TPV attack 1.25 + PKKU defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

PKKU attack 2.12 + TPV defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TPV scores more
35%
level
22%
PKKU scores more
42%

PKKU at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "PKKU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 94% of PKKU’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (77% and 81% over 2.5)
  • 81% of PKKU’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 77% of TPV’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • TPV score first in only 31% of matches
  • PKKU score first in only 31% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
TPV
LWWWL
PKKU
WLDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

TPV face PKKU (Ykkönen)

Ykkönen returns with TPV hosting PKKU. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

TPV host PKKU at Kauppi 3 - Artificial grass.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.