TP Mazembe 4–0 Panda B5: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

TP Mazembe

FT

4 – 0

Panda B5

9/24/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

TP Mazembe81%

×Draw15%

Panda B54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TP MazembeExpected goals in this matchPanda B5

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.35

TP Mazembe

2.25

Panda B5

0.35

TP Mazembe creates 543% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 52 away

2.52

creates per match

0.40

0.31

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

TP Mazembe

2.52

Panda B5

0.40

allows per match

TP Mazembe

0.31

Panda B5

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par

Panda B5+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No74
Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Panda B5 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–13%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–16%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–08%

4–13%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw

96%

TP Mazembe or Panda B5

85%

Draw or Panda B5

19%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+

56%

Panda B5 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals

89%

TP Mazembe 2+ goals

65%

TP Mazembe 3+ goals

39%

Panda B5 1+ goals

30%

Panda B5 2+ goals

5%

Panda B5 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)

95%

Panda B5 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Panda B5 away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Panda B5 defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.25

Panda B5 attack 0.40 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

TP Mazembe scores more

81%

level

15%

Panda B5 scores more

4%

TP Mazembe at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff