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TP Mazembe vs Lubumbashi Sport — Ligue 1 2019

TP Mazembe
TP Mazembe
FT
8 – 0
Lubumbashi Sport
Lubumbashi Sport
1/4/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade du TP Mazembe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

TP Mazembe72%
×Draw19%
Lubumbashi Sport9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TP Mazembe
1.98
Lubumbashi Sport
0.54

TP Mazembe creates 267% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 85 away

creates per match

TP Mazembe
2.52
Lubumbashi Sport
0.76

allows per match

TP Mazembe
0.31
Lubumbashi Sport
1.45

finishing

TP Mazembe+0.00on par
Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TP Mazembe ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TP Mazembe or draw
91%
TP Mazembe or Lubumbashi Sport
81%
Draw or Lubumbashi Sport
28%

Winning margin

TP Mazembe wins by 2+
45%
Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

TP Mazembe 1+ goals
86%
TP Mazembe 2+ goals
59%
TP Mazembe 3+ goals
31%
Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals
42%
Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals
10%
Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

TP Mazembe (draw refunded)
89%
Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TP Mazembe at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.31 · 91 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TP Mazembe attack 2.52 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.98

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + TP Mazembe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

TP Mazembe scores more
72%
level
19%
Lubumbashi Sport scores more
9%

TP Mazembe at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "TP Mazembe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: TP Mazembe 8–0 Lubumbashi Sport

TP Mazembe beat Lubumbashi Sport 8-0 in Ligue 1 on January 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du TP Mazembe in Lubumbashi.