Midland 1–1 Deportivo Merlo: Result & Stats

Midland

FT

1 – 1

Deportivo Merlo

11/3/2017

Primera C · Round 11Estadio de Colegiales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Midland42%

×Draw29%

Deportivo Merlo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MidlandExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Merlo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.99

Midland

1.23

Deportivo Merlo

0.99

Midland creates 24% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 38 away

1.37

creates per match

1.05

0.94

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Midland

1.37

Deportivo Merlo

1.05

allows per match

Midland

0.94

Deportivo Merlo

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Midland+0.00on par

Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Midland ↓

Deportivo Merlo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Midland or draw

70%

Midland or Deportivo Merlo

71%

Draw or Deportivo Merlo

58%

Winning margin

Midland wins by 2+

18%

Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Midland 1+ goals

71%

Midland 2+ goals

35%

Midland 3+ goals

13%

Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Midland (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Midland at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.94 · 99 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Midland attack 1.37 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Merlo attack 1.05 + Midland defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Midland scores more

42%

level

29%

Deportivo Merlo scores more

30%

Midland at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Midland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff