Tottenham 5–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.27

Tottenham

1.37

Newcastle

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 25 away

1.47

creates per match

1.23

1.30

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Newcastle

1.23

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Newcastle

1.27

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Newcastle-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

65%

Tottenham or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

61%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

18%

Newcastle wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

75%

Tottenham 2+ goals

40%

Tottenham 3+ goals

16%

Newcastle 1+ goals

72%

Newcastle 2+ goals

36%

Newcastle 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

53%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.27 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Newcastle defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Newcastle attack 1.23 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tottenham scores more

39%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

35%

Tottenham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Son Heung-Min

Tottenham · F

8.2

Match Events

26'

Harry Kane

39'

F. Schär

41'

Fabian SchärGoal confirmed

43'

B. Davies↳ Son Heung-Min

45+3'

45+3'

45+3'

46'

48'

54'

Son Heung-Min↳ D. Kulusevski

59'

Bruno Guimarães← Javi Manquillo

59'

J. Murphy← Joelinton

63'

Emerson

70'

J. Lascelles← C. Wood

75'

H. Winks← R. Bentancur

76'

Lucas Moura← D. Kulusevski

81'

S. Bergwijn← Emerson

83'

S. Bergwijn↳ Lucas Moura

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamNewcastle

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots8

2Corners3

10Fouls7

Shots

19Total Shots8

6On Target1

8Off Target3

5Blocked4

13Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

604Total Passes379

548Accurate Passes324

91%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides4

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Newcastle

Tottenham beat Newcastle 5-1 in Premier League on April 3, 2022.

Goals: F. Schär (39'), B. Davies (43'), M. Doherty (48'), Son Heung-Min (54'), Emerson (63'), S. Bergwijn (83').

Tottenham controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.

Tottenham vs Newcastle — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Tottenham vs Newcastle